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Should we believe in horoscopes?

Should we believe in horoscopes?

Look up to the sky on a beautiful clear summer night and maybe you will spot a shooting star. Quick, make a wish! Space and its stars have always fascinated civilisations, which have attributed to them mystical powers capable of influencing our destinies. In this little game, astrology is the queen discipline, and these days, even young people are getting into it (astrology is all the rage on the TikTok social network, and Twitter or Instagram accounts offer it in all its forms …), and we are witnessing a real new boom in astrology. The eternal cycle of fashion, we might say. Because after all, if they were not addressing everyone, the Elders were already consulting the stars with regard to harvests and military campaigns. It is no coincidence that the planets of our solar system take their name from the Roman pantheon. And if many mock astrology practitioners with disdain, let us remind the most skeptical that the position of the moon has very concrete effects on our earthly life, and that there is nothing far-fetched to consider than the first months lives of children born in winter or summer are very different and can have a determining effect on their personalities.

But back to our Rams — sorry, sheep! Astrology is most often presented in the form of the horoscope, which promises us mountains and wonders in a few evasive and generalizing formulas:what is hidden behind this heading? Come on, let us predict some discoveries for you as you read this article.

Astrology and horoscope

Let's try to clear up a misunderstanding first. Although many confuse them, astrology and horoscopes are two different things. Indeed, astrology is a science – some would call it “pseudo-”, but that is not our subject here – while the horoscope is its more prosaic, if not recreational, application. Whatever your opinion on the subject indeed, an astrologer worthy of the name is not Mrs. Irma, and does not operate from a trailer in the middle of which would be enthroned a crystal ball. Astrology only claims to make general predictions, the position of the stars influencing, according to it, general tendencies in terms of mood and state of mind. In short, an astrologer could affirm that the position of the planets makes your heart more likely to open up to new encounters during a given period, which a horoscope could tend to exaggerate by simply predicting the beginning of an adventure. There is no great harm, you just have to learn to read the horoscopes with hindsight, and see general trends where they claim to guess specific circumstances.

And there's something for everyone. From the good old horoscope of the daily newspaper, to that of personalized smartphone applications, on which you can connect with your friends and see your affinities evolve day by day; from the most general to the most specialized:our taste for the future crosses ages and social classes. But the horoscopes are, it must be said, often written in a hurry, not to say sloppy, by journalists who sometimes frankly know nothing about them - precisely because of this popular enthusiasm, which has long assured the newspapers an impact on their sales margin that only the juiciest scoops can dream of competing with. No horoscopes, less sales, therefore. And since this manna rests above all on a somewhat consented credulity - after all, who has never read aloud his horoscope and that of his entourage with a sardonic air, in order to entertain the gallery more than by real concern for clairvoyance - no need to entrust it to any specialist in direct line with the stars. Anyone can do the job, therefore at the expense of any rigor and to the great displeasure of true believers in the matter, the journalists being assigned to it are often more concerned with stating generalities as vague as possible than with the position of the stars this day. After all, we never saw any letters from the reader complaining about the inaccuracy of the previous day's predictions. In short, in the pages of the newspaper, the horoscope sits rather at the table of the soap opera than that of the investigative investigation.

How does the attraction for the horoscope work?

So, if looking at your horoscope is just a game we're only too happy to be fooled, how come? Why do we come back to it, in the same way that many of us are more likely to drop a few euros in the lotto on Friday the 13th without being superstitious?

It is that several psychological effects are at work in the development of horoscopes. Not that their editors are gurus hiding behind a massive brainwashing operation. These effects are probably only barely conscious to them as they are a form of common sense. Take the Barnum effect for example. This refers to a cognitive bias tending to make us recognize personal characteristics in a vague general description. Does this remind you of something ? The psychologist Bertram Forer, at the origin of the discovery of this effect, thus fashioned with the help of a collection of horoscopes a generalist description which he then distributed to each of his students following a personality test, and supposed to reflect the results. Unsurprisingly, the students, convinced that the description was intended for them personally, mostly recognized themselves in it.

Added to this is a form of selective exposure. We will tend to recognize in the descriptions given by the horoscopes the data corresponding to us, while comfortably ignoring the others. And since it is impossible to always be wrong, it will be easier to remember the few times he was right than the many unfulfilled prophecies. In general, horoscopes present a disproportionate amount of positive information, which makes them attractive, and avoids unpleasant topics such as politics. And when bad news comes to the fore, we can console ourselves by saying that such and such a planet was not with us on this one. This is what divests us of this responsibility and softens the disappointment. In short, our brain likes to be fooled, which horoscopes know. They therefore take advantage of these failures to make us browse directly to their page, when we find a free newspaper in transport.

Finally, in our modern societies marked by science, which strives to uproot all forms of supernatural wild grass using its "reason" and "technical" tools, there is something very attractive in the surrender to the irrational. One would be tempted to return to the watchword of fantastic realism of Jacques Bergier, who called at the beginning of the 1960s in Le Matin des magiciens to open up to the underlying magic that surrounds us, omnipresent even and especially in our societies invaded by technology. Isn't it magic, to read this article on the Internet, with the yardstick of a reader of the 1960s? So why not believe that the position of the stars can influence our future? The wisest position on this subject is still to admit our insignificance on a cosmic scale, and to note the vanity of those who claim to enslave any form of belief in the technical progress of humanity. The planets will still be there when our civilizations have collapsed.

Taking a step back when reading the horoscope

However, keep in mind that these types of irrational beliefs also reflect social integration — or the lack thereof. We know that an immoderate belief in one's horoscope develops in parallel with loneliness and precariousness, two evils that affect the elderly disproportionately. Of course, this is not to conclude that reading the horoscope constitutes a cry for help. Many see it only as a form of entertainment, and take it with a pinch of salt. But be careful not to see in the predictions of the stars the keys to the future, graciously delivered with the deed of ownership as a bonus - especially given the lack of rigor with which the horoscopes are written.

Here, if you really care about it, take an interest in astrology, which is fascinating just for its history and its mythological figures. And consult a specialist who, using your astral map, will weave connections between the stars and your character that are much more personal than those very vague in the diary. As you can see, reading one's horoscope is first and foremost a relatively innocent pastime (or, at worst, a clever scam from the newsagents) which is good to indulge in with full knowledge of the unconscious motives from which it draws its appeal.